{"id":706,"date":"2020-04-02T16:59:58","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T16:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/?p=706"},"modified":"2020-05-05T14:07:32","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T14:07:32","slug":"approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Publication date:<\/strong> 02\/04\/2020 &#8211;  <strong>E&amp;P Code:<\/strong>  <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/706\" target=\"_blank\">repo.epiprev.it\/706<\/a>   <br><strong>Authors:<\/strong> Giovenale Moirano<sup>1<\/sup>, Lorenzo Richiardi<sup>1<\/sup>, Carlo Novara<sup>2<\/sup>, Milena Maule<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong>. Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. <br>In the current study we analysed public data from the four most affected Italian regions.<br>We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R_t), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of R_t over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases approximately two weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Topic<\/strong>: <a href='\/index.php\/category\/COVID-19'>COVID-19<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Key words<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/tag\/covid-19\/\" rel=\"tag\">COVID-19<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/tag\/epidemiology\/\" rel=\"tag\">epidemiologia<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/tag\/modelling\/\" rel=\"tag\">modelli<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/tag\/public-health\/\" rel=\"tag\">salute pubblica<\/a>, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>AVVERTENZA. GLI ARTICOLI PRESENTI NEL REPOSITORY NON SONO SOTTOPOSTI A PEER REVIEW.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Cite as<\/strong>: Giovenale Moirano, Lorenzo Richiardi, Carlo Novara, Milena Maule (2020). Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy. E&P Repository <a href='https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/706'>https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/706<\/a><button title=\"Copia citazione\" id=\"copyTextCite\"><span class=\"far fa-copy\"><\/span><\/button><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media stack-xs\">\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <div class=\"media\">\n                    <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icona\" src=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/pdf.svg\" onError='this.src=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/unknown.svg\";' \/><\/div>\n                    <div class=\"media-body\">\n                        <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/download\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/'>Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy<\/a><\/h3>\n                        <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-file-download\"><\/i> 81 Download <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 913 KB<\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3 wpdmdl-btn\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link btn btn-primary ' rel='nofollow' href='#' onclick=\"location.href='https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/download\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/?wpdmdl=753&refresh=69eb7dca9d13d1777040842';return false;\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Info<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Affiliations<\/strong>: <br><sup>1 <\/sup>Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, and CPO Piemonte, AOU Citta\u0300 della Salute e della Scienza, Turin, Italy.<br><sup>2<\/sup> Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino, C.so Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 1029 Turin, Italy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Authors&#8217; contributions: <\/strong>Authors&#8217; contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the statistical analysis and drafted the final version of the manuscript<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Competing interests: <\/strong>none declared<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Funding disclosure: <\/strong>Not applicable<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Ethics committee approval: <\/strong>The study was based on publicly available aggregate data. No Ethics committee approval was necessary. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Copyright<\/strong>:  Il  detentore del copyright per questa pre-stampa \u00e8 l&#8217;autore\/finanziatore,  che ha concesso a &#8220;E&amp;P Repository&#8221; una licenza per rendere pubblica in forma permanente questo documento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>Update<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/871\">repo.epiprev.it\/871<\/a> publication date 4 aprile 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-background has-small-font-size has-light-gray-background-color\"><strong>References &amp; Citations<\/strong><br><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy\" target=\"_blank\">Google Scholar<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.repo.epiprev.it\/706\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Condividi su Facebook\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/icon_facebook.png\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https:\/\/www.repo.epiprev.it\/706\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Condividi su Twitter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/icon_twitter.png\"><\/a><a class=\"icon_whatsapp\" href=\"https:\/\/api.whatsapp.com\/send?text=https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/706&amp;attribution=AMPhtml&amp;url=repo.epiprev.it\/706\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" title=\"Invia con WhatsApp\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/icon_whatsapp.png\"><\/a>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analysed public data from the four most affected Italian regions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[16,25,26,24],"class_list":["post-706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","tag-covid-19","tag-epidemiology","tag-modelling","tag-public-health"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy - E&amp;P Repository<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy - E&amp;P Repository\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analysed public data from the four most affected Italian regions.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"E&amp;P Repository\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/epiprev\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-02T16:59:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-05-05T14:07:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/logo_repo_facebook.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"administrator\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/logo_repo_twitter.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scritto da\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"administrator\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo di lettura stimato\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minuti\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"administrator\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/#\/schema\/person\/2a184e8c4e97508ef5111e78c8d0a59c\"},\"headline\":\"Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-02T16:59:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-05T14:07:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\"},\"wordCount\":367,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"COVID-19\",\"epidemiologia\",\"modelli\",\"salute pubblica\"],\"articleSection\":[\"COVID-19\"],\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/repo.epiprev.it\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/approaches-to-daily-monitoring-of-the-sars-cov-2-outbreak-in-northern-italy\/\",\"name\":\"Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy - 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