Avvertenza. Il Repository contiene rapporti di lavoro preliminari, non ancora sottoposti a revisione tra pari (peer review). Non dovrebbero essere riportati dai media come informazioni consolidate, né essere utilizzati per guidare la pratica clinica o indirizzare comportamenti. leggi

COVID-19

Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy

Publication date: 02/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/706
Authors: Giovenale Moirano1, Lorenzo Richiardi1, Carlo Novara2, Milena Maule1

Abstract. Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March.
In the current study we analysed public data from the four most affected Italian regions.
We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R_t), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of R_t over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases approximately two weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy.

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COVID-19

Potential effects of airborne particulate matter on spreading, pathophysiology and prognosis of a viral respiratory infection

Publication date: 02/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/688
Authors: Simona Re1, Angelo Facchini2

Abstract. Scientific studies show evidence of a correlation between air pollution levels and respiratory diseases, with a possible increase in the morbidity of respiratory viral infections. However, following the outbreak of Covid-19, the possible effects of the PM (particulate matter) concentrations on the susceptability and pollution-mediated effects are not scientifically demonstrated yet.
In order to shed light on this topic, we performed a narrative review of the scientific literature upon the potential effects of PM on spreading, pathophysiology and prognosis of viral respiratory infections related to Covid-19.
We discuss four hypotheses: 1) how can air pollutants affect the prognosis of respiratory infectious diseases; 2) how can the interaction between air pollutants and pathogens increase the infectious potential of respiratory pathogens; 3) how can air pollutants foster the infectious potential of respiratory pathogens by veiculating them; 4) how can air pollutants worsen the respiratory co-infections by increasing antibiotic resistance.

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COVID-19

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Italians and in Immigrants in Northern Italy

Publication date: 01/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/538
Authors: The Reggio Emilia COVID-19 working group1
Correspondence: Paolo Giorgi Rossi, Azienda USL – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, via Amendola 2, 42122, Reggio Emilia, Italy, paolo.giorgirossi@ausl.re.it

Abstract: It has been hypothesized that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine can be protective against COVID-19.
We report that immigrants resident in Reggio Emilia province, mostly coming from countries with high BCG vaccination coverage, and Italians had a similar prevalence of infection (OR 0.99; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.82-1.2) and similar probability of being tested (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.81-1.1).

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COVID-19

Andamento della Mortalità Giornaliera (SiSMG) nelle città italiane in relazione all’epidemia di Covid-19. Report 1 Febbraio – 21 Marzo 2020

Publication date: 30/03/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/296
Authors: (a cura di) Marina Davoli,1 Francesca de’ Donato,1 Manuela De Sario,1 Paola Michelozzi,1 Fiammetta Noccioli,1 Daniela Orrù,1 Pasqualino Rossi,2 Matteo Scortichini1

Sintesi. I n relazione all’emergenza sanitaria da COVID-19, la sorveglianza giornaliera della mortalità rappresenta uno strumento strategico al fine di valutare l’impatto sulla mortalità dell’epidemia, poiché consente di monitorare l’andamento temporale e di stimare l’incremento di mortalità associato direttamente e indirettamente alla diffusione del virus COVID-19.
In Italia dal 2004 è attivo il Sistema di sorveglianza della mortalità giornaliera (SiSMG); Il SISMG è stato sviluppato nell’ambito del Progetto del Ministero della Salute Azione centrale CCM- Piano Nazionale di Prevenzione Effetti Ondate di Calore coordinato dal Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del SSR Lazio, ASL Roma 1 (DEPLAZIO) nella sua funzione di Centro di Competenza nazionale della Protezione Civile; il SISMG è operativo in 33 città, capoluoghi di regione o città con più di 250,000 abitanti.
I dati di mortalità relativi ai decessi dei residenti deceduti nel Comune vengono notificati giornalmente dagli Uffici Anagrafi dei Comuni al Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del SSR Lazio, ASL Roma 1 (DEPLAZIO) attraverso una piattaforma online. La stima dell’eccesso di mortalità è calcolata come differenza tra i valori della mortalità osservata e i valori della mortalità attesa, utilizzando come dato di riferimento la serie storica dei 5 anni precedenti. I dati di mortalità vengono analizzati tutte le classi di età e per la popolazione anziana (65-74. 75-84, 85);
Un grafico sintetico dell’andamento della mortalità è pubblicato a cadenza settimanale sul portale del Ministero della salute.

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COVID-19

Short-term effects of mitigation measures for the containment of the COVID-19 outbreak: an experience from Northern Italy

Publication date: 29/03/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/257
Authors: Giovenale Moirano,1 Maurizio Schmid,2 Francesco Barone-Adesi3

Abstract: In the last weeks several countries implemented mitigation measures in the attempt to curb the COVID-19 epidemic. While these interventions showed to be effective in Wuhan (China), it is not clear whether these results are directly applicable to other countries (1). We conducted a first evaluation of the effectiveness of such measures in a small Italian area, taking advantage of the fact that it introduced the mitigation measures two weeks ahead the rest of the country.

Following the detection of the first cases of COVID-19 in Lombardy, the Italian Government enforced different policies to contain the local outbreaks. On February 23rd, a total lockdown was issued for 10 municipalities in the Lodi Province (Lombardy Region), and the measures included:  a) strict home confinement to the entire population; b) closure of all the non-essential commercial activities; c) mobility restrictions related to the involved municipalities (2).

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