Tag: modelli

Covid-19 in Africa: the little we know and the lot we ignore

Publication date: 18/06/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/1827
Authors: Sandro Colombo1, Rino Scuccato1, Antonello Fadda1, Amélia Jossai Cumbi1

Abstract: Covid-19 has stirred up an information deluge that challenges our capacity to absorb and make sense of data. In this unrelenting flow of information, Africa has been largely off the radar, escaping the attention of the scientific literature and the media. International agencies have been the exception: despite the still low numbers of cases and deaths, they have voiced concerns, often in catastrophic terms, on the health, economic and social impacts of Covid-19 in African countries. These concerns contrast sharply with the optimistic view that Africa may be spared the worst consequences of the pandemic.
This paper provides a snapshot of a crisis in evolution: its features could change as new data become available and our understanding improves. The paper examines the epidemic trends, the health impact, the containment measures and their possible side effects. Africa has a long experience of responding to epidemics: relevant lessons learned are outlined. The picture of the epidemic and its narrative are heterogenous, given the differing vulnerabilities of African countries and the diverse contexts within their borders. The paper, therefore, singles out selected countries as illustrative of specific situations and advocates for a transnational and subnational approach to future analyses.
The virus has shown a strong capacity to adapt; therefore, a response strategy, in order to be effective, needs to be flexible and able to adapt to changes. The paper concludes with the recommendation that affected communities should be engaged in the response, to maintain or build trust. A lesson from the Ebola outbreak of a few years ago was that epidemiologists and community leaders learned, after initial difficulties, how to dialogue and work together.

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Un modello dei valutazione del rischio

Modelli di rischio per la resilienza al Covid-19

Publication date: 06/05/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/1526
Authors: Massimo Falchetta1

Abstract: La resilienza della società italiana alla pandemia di Covid-19 richiede non solo un approccio Top-Down guidato dalle Pubbliche Autorità ma anche Bottom-Up, in cui la popolazione e le sue articolazioni (ad esempio le aziende) siano in grado di elaborare risposte comportamentali adeguate.
Da questo punto di vista, è la consapevolezza del rischio di ritrovarsi malati e contagiare il prossimo che può guidare il comportamento individuale e aziendale in rapporto alla necessità di dover comunque, prima o poi, riprendere una vita di relazione ragionevole. A tal fine è opportuno disporre di modelli in grado di fornire una valutazione del rischio insito nei comportamenti che dovranno essere assunti.

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Strategie di sorveglianza e biomonitoraggio del contagio da SARS-CoV-2 tramite tamponi individuali, pool testing e test sierologici: un protocollo per affrontare il dopo lockdown in Regione Toscana

Publication date: 20/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/1235
Authors: Gruppo di lavoro dell’Istituto per lo studio e la prevenzione oncologica (ISPRO)1: Francesca Maria Carozzi, Marco Peluso, Armelle Munnia, Irene Paganini, Simonetta Bisanzi, Donella Puliti, Marco Zappa, Cristina Sani, Elena Burroni; Gruppo di lavoro del Dipartimento di statistica, informatica, applicazioni (DISIA)2: Michela Baccini, Fabrizia Mealli, Giulia Cereda, Anna Gottard, Marco Pedone, Emilia Rocco, Cecilia Viscardi; Gruppo di lavoro dell’Agenzia Regionale di Sanità della Toscana (ARS Toscana)3: Mario Braga, Fabio Voller, Francesco Profili, Paolo Francesconi.

Abstract. L’epidemia da SARS-CoV-2 in pochi mesi si è rapidamente diffusa dalla Cina al resto del mondo. L’Italia è stato il primo paese Europeo pesantemente colpito dal contagio e il nostro servizio sanitario è stato ed è tuttora messo a dura prova dal moltiplicarsi dei casi di COVID-19.

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Oltre il picco: analisi e previsioni dell’epidemia da SARS-CoV-2 in Toscana

Publication date: 10/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/1085
Authors: Michela Baccini1, Giulia Cereda1, Cecilia Viscardi1, Anna Gottard1, Fabrizia Mealli1

Abstract. L’Italia è stato il primo stato europeo raggiunto dall’epidemia da SARS-CoV-2 e rappresenta uno dei paesi attualmente più colpiti dal contagio. Seguendo l’esempio della Cina, ha attuato misure progressive di distanziamento sociale fino a un completo lockdown esteso a tutta la nazione.
Il reale processo di diffusione di una malattia infettiva è molto complesso e dipende da innumerevoli fattori, ma sotto alcune assunzioni la dinamica del processo può essere semplificata e riprodotta attraverso modelli matematici. In questo articolo utilizziamo un modello compartimentale di tipo SIRD, calibrato sui decessi osservati per descrivere l’andamento dell’epidemia da SARS-CoV-2 nella regione Toscana.
Questo modello è da noi utilizzato per stimare uno scenario controfattuale di evoluzione naturale del contagio in assenza di politiche di distanziamento sociale, per valutare l’efficacia delle misure di contenimento intraprese e per produrre previsioni a breve e medio-lungo termine utili al fine di pianificare azioni nell’immediato futuro.

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Undetected Cases of Covid-19 and Effects of Social Distancing Strategies: a Modeling Study in Piedmont Region

Publication date: 07/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/929
Authors: S. Pernice (SP)1, P. Castagno (PC)1, L. Marcotulli (LM)1, M. M. Maule (MMM)2, L. Richiardi (LR)2, G. Moirano (GM)2, M. Sereno (MS)1, F. Cordero (FC)1, M. Beccuti (MB)1

Background. The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is viral infection highly transmittable caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In February 21-st, 2020 the first person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Italy. Afterwards, the number of people infected with COVID-19 increased rapidly, firstly in northern Italian regions, e.g., Piedmont, then it rapidly expands in all Italian territories.
In this context computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to better understand the spreading characteristics of thus diseases and to decide the social measures to counter, mitigate or simply delay the spread of the infectious diseases.

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Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy: an update (04/04/20) for all Italian regions

Publication date: 06/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/871
Authors: Giovenale Moirano1, Lorenzo Richiardi1, Carlo Novara2, Milena Maule1

Abstract. This short report is an update of the previously uploaded manuscript entitled “Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy” (repo.epiprev.it/706). In this report we included data from all Italian regions up to the 4th of April.

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Approaches to daily monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Northern Italy

Publication date: 02/04/2020 – E&P Code: repo.epiprev.it/706
Authors: Giovenale Moirano1, Lorenzo Richiardi1, Carlo Novara2, Milena Maule1

Abstract. Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March.
In the current study we analysed public data from the four most affected Italian regions.
We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R_t), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of R_t over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases approximately two weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy.

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